Posted: 06/05/08

The Red and Blue Map

Kerby Anderson

            One word I find myself using quite often in my commentaries is the word "realignment." In the past, we have discussed the political realignment, the economic realignment, and even the geographic realignment of America. It turns out that I am not the only one predicting some significant changes in the next election and the next few years.

            Salena Zito recently wrote about "Remapping the Red and Blue." It is quite possible that this election may change the colors of the Republican-red and Democrat-blue map. Democrats, for example, believe that have a shot at a traditional red-states like Virginia and may be competitive in Colorado as well as Nevada and New Mexico.

            Most pundits also predict this will be a bad year for Republicans. The problem is not just with the so-called "Republican brand." The youth vote at the moment is moving in the opposite direction. Just a few years ago, young people registered 50-50 as Democrats or Republicans. This time they are registering 2-1 Democrat.

            Of course not everyone is convinced that the electoral map will change that much. Political scientist Larry Sabato believes "that the vast majority of blue states will stay blue and the vast majority of red states will stay red in November." He is quick to dismiss the idea that John McCain will be competitive in California or that Barack Obama will take Georgia and Mississippi.

It is certainly possible that the candidates may trade states (Obama might take Virginia while McCain might take Pennsylvania). It is also possible that the candidate's choice of a vice-president might have some limited impact. But he believes the electoral map won't change that much but gives the edge to Barack Obama.

The lesson we can take from all of these discussions is that change is in the air. In previous commentaries I have talked about some of these profound changes. But most of the time, the political, economic, cultural, and even spiritual changes are incremental. We need to pay attention to a world that is changing around us. I'm Kerby Anderson, and that's my point of view.

By Kerby Anderson Click here for bio and archived articles